Accounting for future system state

In Step 6, we think about what the system will look like in the future, considering significant global forces and driving changes such as climate change, population and land use change,  and environmental shifts. We also take into account the risk management options introduced in Step 5 and consider how the introduction of these will change the risk in the system. The idea is also to assess if the planned risk management options, designed to manage and reduce direct and indirect risks of various hazards, will still work in the future and how they influence the system.

Guidance protocol questions

The following are questions that can help decision-makers, stakeholders, and relevant parties in successfully walking through step 6 of the framework. Consider this set of questions as an initial guide for your investigation, recognizing that it is not an exhaustive list.

Influence of larger processes

  • What are the various broader influences that could potentially impact your system? 

Examples of such influences include climate change, urban development, economic shifts, demographic changes, etc. Consider how these factors may alter system boundaries, exposure, and the vulnerability of system elements, as well as hazard characteristics such as frequency and magnitude.

Influence of considered risk management options

  • How do the risk management options you selected in Step 5 influence your system and other systems, i.e. do they increase risk somewhere else? 
  • How will these risk management options perform under future system change taking into account wider influences (see examples below)?

As in the previous steps of the framework, we are referring to the fictitious multi-hazard event in the Danube Region to exemplify the process of navigating through this stage of the framework. This serves as a practical illustration of how to approach this step and how to address the guidance protocol questions mentioned earlier, using our hypothetical scenario as a guide.

CONCEPTUAL EXAMPLE

There was a drought in the Danube Region (e.g. the 2015 or 2022 drought) that left severe consequences across sectors. After several months, the region is hit by a severe flood (e.g. the 2006 flood) causing severe loss and damage.

  • Changes in land use policies affect direct and indirect risks
  • Climate change increases the frequency and severity of droughts and floods
  • exposure change due to population growth
  • Increased water demand due to population growth

Methods and tools
relevant to step 6

Multi-Risk Pathways

Multi-risk pathways are a means to support disaster risk reduction planners in designing dynamic, adaptive plans that connect immediate disaster risk reduction needs across multiple hazards and sectors in the short-term with more uncertain longer-term challenges.

Risk-Informed Decision-Making

Development of methods to support decision-makers and stakeholders navigate the challenges of uncertain, integrated, and risk-informed DRM. These methods help explore, prioritise and balance complex synergies and tradeoffs across sectors and hazards when managing both short- and long-term risks.

Multi-risk scenarios

We are working on software for generating multi-hazard and multi-risk scenarios including the development of event sets, risk quantification, and comprehensive user guidelines. 

Implementation in pilot regions

Veneto

The Veneto Region Pilot focuses on multi-hazard and multi-risk assessment for both baseline and future climate change scenarios, combining quantitative and qualitative methods. These applications support the development of disaster risk management pathways that enhance resilience across diverse socio-economic and environmental systems.

North sea

The North Sea pilot develops a multi-hazard and multi-sector pathway to manage risks and promote sustainable development, focusing on energy, shipping and transport, and nature across the Greater North Sea Region.

Danube

The Danube Pilot seeks to understand how different natural hazards affect each other in the Danube Region, helping to improve disaster risk management plans for the area.

Canary Islands

The Canary Islands pilot aims at enhancing the understanding of multi-hazard risks in tourism island destinations by focusing on the interconnected impacts of hazards across key sectors, including tourism, water, energy, and agri-food.