Risk-Informed Decision-Making

SUMMARY

Our work on risk-informed decision-making has focused on three principal activities:

Further information on the last two activities can be found on the above linked-to dedicated pages. The remainder of this page concerns the collaborative systems analysis approach.

Collaborative
Systems Analysis

A solid understanding of how systems function underpins good decision-making. In complex, ‘messy’, multi-sector, multi-risk problem contexts, multiple stakeholders can hold competing versions of system causality. It is important to establish a shared, common understanding. Collaborative systems analysis methods are important ingredients to achieve this. Specifically, they support forward-looking adaptive multi-risk decision making to:

Our generic approach both supports the development of Multi-Risk Pathways according to the three stages of DAPP-MR and offers a means by which to help users step through the MYRIAD-EU Framework.

The objective of the proposed approach is:

The proposed approach consists of three iterative steps. Like DAPP-MR, these gradually increase the degree of system complexity being considered in each step:

  1. Define system boundaries and constraints
  2. Undertake sector-based analyses
  3. Synthesise sector-based analyses into a whole-of-system analysis
MYRIAD-EU Collaborative Systems Analysis Approach

Each step within the approach suggests a list of question prompts to guide practitioners, along with possible participatory methods and tools to be applied to help answer these. Highlighted tools include the DPSIR framework for analysing causal relationships, Causal Loop Diagrams for visualising system causalities, and CIrcle and Interaction Matrices for exploring system interactions. Practitioners should feel free to adapt these as needed to suit their particular problem context and prior experience. Further information on the approach can be found here.

DPSIR Framework of causal relationships (Source: EC, 1999)
Example causal loop diagram for water management (Source: Felfelani et al., 2013)
CIrcle interactions analysis (Deltares, 2022)
Gill, J. C., Malamud, B. D., Barillas, E. M., and Guerra Noriega, A.: Construction of regional multihazard interaction frameworks, with an application to Guatemala, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 149–180, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-149-2020, 2020.

Application of collaborative systems analysis approach with the MYRIAD-EU Framework

The proposed collaborative systems analysis approach complements the MYRIAD-EU Framework insofar as it proposes a means by which to collaboratively undertake the initial framing and context setting aspects of each step in the framework together with stakeholders. The table below summarises the aspects of the framework the proposed approach supports.

Activities in the MYRIAD-EU framework covered by the proposed collaborative systems analysis approach

Finding a system definition

Included in collaborative systems analysis approach

Characterisation of direct risk

Included in collaborative systems analysis approach
Not included in collaborative systems analysis approach

Characterisation of indirect risk

Included in collaborative systems analysis approach
Not included in collaborative systems analysis approach

Evaluation of direct and indirect risk

Included in collaborative systems analysis approach
Not included in collaborative systems analysis approach

Defining risk management options

Not included in collaborative systems analysis approach

Accounting for future system state

Included in collaborative systems analysis approach
Not included in collaborative systems analysis approach