Risk-Informed Decision-Making

SUMMARY

Our work on risk-informed decision-making has focused on three principal activities:
  • The development of a generic, flexible approach to collaborative systems analysis.
  • The elaboration of the MYRIAD-EU Framework for individual, multi-, and systematic risk analysis with multiple iterations and additional steps to guide the formulation of Multi-Risk Pathways to address long-term DRR challenges. We refer to this approach as Dynamic Adaptive Policy Pathways for Multi-Risk (DAPP-MR).
  • The development of a Storyline approach to qualitatively implement systems and risk analyses and pathways formulation through exploration of both past- and potential future multi-risk events.

Further information on the last two activities can be found on the above linked-to dedicated pages. The remainder of this page concerns the collaborative systems analysis approach.

Collaborative
Systems Analysis

A solid understanding of how systems function underpins good decision-making. In complex, ‘messy’, multi-sector, multi-risk problem contexts, multiple stakeholders can hold competing versions of system causality. It is important to establish a shared, common understanding. Collaborative systems analysis methods are important ingredients to achieve this. Specifically, they support forward-looking adaptive multi-risk decision making to:
  • Avoid negative consequences when approaching problems through a sector-specific lens.
  • Aid in the formulation of system-wide objectives that both recognize and balance the inherent trade-offs within systems
  • Ensure a more equitable distribution of system-wide resources, costs, and benefits.
  • Help reduce the potential for stakeholder conflict.

Our generic approach both supports the development of Multi-Risk Pathways according to the three stages of DAPP-MR and offers a means by which to help users step through the MYRIAD-EU Framework.

The objective of the proposed approach is:
  • To represent holistic, integrated systems and their key functions, risks, and opportunities.
  • To highlight the key interdependencies and interactions between system components, including all feedbacks, trade-offs, and synergies.
  • To generate a common, shared understanding of integrated systems and planning objectives among stakeholders.
  • To prioritise key system functions, objectives, constraints, risks, and opportunities for the purposes of DRM planning.
  • To be flexible to the needs of practitioners and allow for the incorporation of various supporting tools and approaches with which they are comfortable.

The proposed approach consists of three iterative steps. Like DAPP-MR, these gradually increase the degree of system complexity being considered in each step:

  1. Define system boundaries and constraints
  2. Undertake sector-based analyses
  3. Synthesise sector-based analyses into a whole-of-system analysis
MYRIAD-EU Collaborative Systems Analysis Approach

Each step within the approach suggests a list of question prompts to guide practitioners, along with possible participatory methods and tools to be applied to help answer these. Highlighted tools include the DPSIR framework for analysing causal relationships, Causal Loop Diagrams for visualising system causalities, and CIrcle and Interaction Matrices for exploring system interactions. Practitioners should feel free to adapt these as needed to suit their particular problem context and prior experience. Further information on the approach can be found here.

DPSIR Framework of causal relationships (Source: EC, 1999)
Example causal loop diagram for water management (Source: Felfelani et al., 2013)
CIrcle interactions analysis (Deltares, 2022)
Gill, J. C., Malamud, B. D., Barillas, E. M., and Guerra Noriega, A.: Construction of regional multihazard interaction frameworks, with an application to Guatemala, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 149–180, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-149-2020, 2020.

Application of collaborative systems analysis approach with the MYRIAD-EU Framework

The proposed collaborative systems analysis approach complements the MYRIAD-EU Framework insofar as it proposes a means by which to collaboratively undertake the initial framing and context setting aspects of each step in the framework together with stakeholders. The table below summarises the aspects of the framework the proposed approach supports.

Activities in the MYRIAD-EU framework covered by the proposed collaborative systems analysis approach

Finding a system definition

Included in collaborative systems analysis approach
  • Identifying the system at hand, its components and clear system boundaries
  • Determining the hazards threatening the system and the system’s exposed and vulnerable elements
  • Characterising the governance landscape, sustainability challenges, desired vision and initial risk management options for the system

Characterisation of direct risk

Included in collaborative systems analysis approach
  • Identifying direct risks resulting from physical contact with the single- or multi-hazard
  • Defining direct risk metrics
Not included in collaborative systems analysis approach
  • Characterising direct risk metrics (i.e., assessing the risks)

Characterisation of indirect risk

Included in collaborative systems analysis approach
  • Identifying indirect risks due to interdependencies in the systems
  • Defining indirect risk metrics
Not included in collaborative systems analysis approach
  • Characterising indirect risk metrics (i.e., assessing the risks)

Evaluation of direct and indirect risk

Included in collaborative systems analysis approach
  • Defining direct and indirect risk evaluation criteria
Not included in collaborative systems analysis approach
  • Conducting the evaluation
  • Selecting direct and indirect risks to manage

Defining risk management options

Not included in collaborative systems analysis approach
  • Identifying initial risk management options for the system
  • Assessing and evaluating risk management options
  • Selecting risk management options for inclusion in the adaptive DRM strategy

Accounting for future system state

Included in collaborative systems analysis approach
  • Identifying the key factors driving risk in future system states (e.g., due to processes such as climate change, economic change, land-use change, etc.)
Not included in collaborative systems analysis approach
  • Defining/specifying the future system state according to the identified factors